Is It Safe Yet(by Sophia)

11/3/2008
p.026
Barclays President Bob Diamond, Bar Cap in Europe ask the opinion of not M&A Leman(bond player-catastrophe bonds)
p030.
1. 1985, Drexel Burnham –junk bonds; 1986, S&L cresis intensifies; 1989, Glass Steagall Act eliminate the restriction between commercial and investment bank; 1994 hedge funds. 1998 Long Term Capital Management Models(LTCM); 2000 , doc.com bubble bursts, 2006, subprime mortgages, housing bubble, 2007, Bear Stearns, 2008, Lehman Brothers.
2. Regulation/deregulation( ideology of economics in University of Chicago) /Wall Street lobbyist
3. Too big to fail, but also too big to rescue.
4. tycoon大亨
p.034 more pain ahead
1. Watchful eye of regulations
2. How bad things will get from here depends on how cleanly the losing firms and toxic investments can be extricated form the rest.
3. CDOs Credit default SWAP(default,1. set A and will show B)
4. Merrill/AIG/European banks
p. 044 Beyond the street
1. SanFrancisco- American Conservatory Theater, ticket price drop and lay off, Starwood Hotels and Resorts Worldwide
2. Leman’s biggest partner-NorthMarq Capital- a commercial real estate banker in Minneapolis, and AIG’s
3. Auto industry
4. Roger Berkowitz-restaurant chain of Sea food
5. So bad until 2010
P.046 sovereign funds: twice shy (once shot, twice shy)
1. Financial folly, plow nearly $60 billion
2. the investment in banks and brokerages haven’t turned out to be a great deal.
p. 048 Russian stocks in free fall
p. 050 A chance to find balance
1. The turmoil won’t be end until there sectors pare down their debit.
2. State and local gov. still have room to borrow because they didn’t leverage up as much as households and financial institutions did. The resulting retreat in housing and consumption will leave more resource to devote to building real wealth for the future, including spending on education and research and development. (review the emphasis and adjust for inflation did not add much debit so still has power of borrowing)
p.068 green power buyers beware
utilities
premium
did not foster renewable energy/power but spending on marketing and administration fee
p. 088
1. rip vedio c.f. illegal ripped copies
2. content scramble system(CSS)
3. RealDVD $30 share up to 5 in all as long as they have their own copy of Real DVD $20
4. Impose restrictions doesn’t get us there, but this move us in the right direction.
P. 0.56 how the rate the power of interbrands1.
1. methodology
1). It must derive a third of its earning outside its home country
2). It must have publicly available marketing and financial data.
3). Eliminated heavy weight, or portfolios of brands, like Wart-Mart, P&G
2. Steps
1. Sales falls 5 years
2. Earning results from the power of the brand
3. Interbrand discounts against current interest rates and overall risk profile

BusinessWeek(U.S. Debt and Financial Crisis) 20081103

BTW
PINK-SLIP SPECIAL
*pink slip停止雇用的通知
*foreclosure 止贖權
債務人將資產抵押給債權人後，若債務人拖欠還款或無力償還，則債權人得向法院申請頒布命令，將債務人贖回抵押物的權利取消，於是抵押資產成為債權人所有·這種賦予債權人的權利稱為延贖權·

• Forget “No Shirt, No shoes, No Service.” At the Fifty/50, a sports bar and restaurant in Chicago’s trendy Wicker Parker, it’s “No Job, No Home, No Problem.

PROFILES IN PILFERING
*rack up 累計

• Risky borrowing and lending aren't the only way companies rack up losses.

*ferret out 查獲;搜出

• More than half of the 959 white-collar crime cases analyzed were discovered by accident, the study says, despite the post-Enron focus on ferreting out such crimes through systematic examination.

perpetrator 做壞事者;犯罪者

• Not surprisingly, the perpetrators are often those with the best access to the corporate lock box: those in accounting (29%) and upper management (18%).

COVER STORY
DANGERROUS FAKES
*espionage 諜報;間諜活動,刺探

• The American military faces a growing threat of potentially fatal equipment failure—and even foreign espionage—because of counterfeit computer components used in warplanes, ships, and communication networks.

WHAT'S NEXT
Nokia's Bid to Rule The Mobile Web

• The next generation of the Web is going to be all about the small multimedia computer and not the PC.
• The number of people who use their phones to cruise the Web is surging worldwide, with the figure in the U.S. rising 36% over the past year, to 40 million, according to researcher Nielsen.

*euphoria 心情愉快;興奮

• That's easy to forget with all the euphoria surrounding the iPhone.

*jet-setters 富佬;名流人物
*gadget hounds 玩家

• The iPhone may win the hearts and fill the pockets of jet-setters and gadget hounds, but they're a relatively small group.

*poach 侵入他人地界
*turf地盤;勢力範圍

• In addition to Apple, Google (GOOG) is poaching on Nokia's turf.
• Wireless operator T-Mobile launched the first Android-powered phone in the U.S. on Sept. 24. In addition, RIM, after making its BlackBerry the must-have gadget of the business world, is now going after consumers.
• in the developed world, mobile devices will be extensions of—rather than replacements for—PCs.
• In many emerging markets, the situation will be different—mobile phones will be the only way for most people to get on the Internet.

Please preview this video. Thanks a lot.

BusinessWeek(Where to Stash your money) 20081026

COVER STORY
WHERE TO STASH YOUR MONEY

• We probe the risks of credit default swaps, complex securities that wreaked havoc on Wall Street and many lurk in mutual funds.

*wreak 發洩;排出
*havoc 大破壞,浩劫
*lurk in 潛伏在

• Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful.

Short-term Treasury Securities(短期國庫劵, T-Bill)
短期國庫券：美國政府發行的債務證券，期限少於一年。短期國庫券通過競標過程發售，價格相對面值有折扣，所以不會像大部分其他債券一般支付定額利息。短期國庫券簡稱T Bills或Bills，為國庫證券(Treasury Securities)之一。是貨幣市場(Money Market)中最重要和最活躍的信用工具之一，由政府承諾在發行日起經特定時日(通常不超過一年)向持票人償付一定金額的負債證券。此種證券是由財政部按拍賣方式折價出售，面值和發行價格的差價是投資的報酬。其可分為四鐘：三個月，六個月，九個月及一年，但以三個月占絕大部分。國庫券具有無信用風險，高度流動性及易於轉讓等特質

Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, TIPS(抗通膨債券)
抗通膨債券 (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, TIPS)，是由美國財政部發行的國債，屬於國庫債券一種，每六個月付息一次，其本金及票息均依據消費物價指數(CPI)確定的通膨率隨時進行調整。與一般標準國債一樣，抗通膨債券票息發行時採固定形式，但異於標準國債，抗通膨債券的本金額度每年需根據通膨率進行二次調整，若通膨率上升，票息的本金額度隨之調整，投資者可獲得的票息亦跟著上漲。

當債券到期後，投資者將獲得最初的投資本金和根據債券發行期間通膨率變化差額的補償。 例如：本金100萬的債券，票面利率3.5％，假若通澎指數為4%，那麼本金就會被調整為104萬，每年可以獲得的利率便為104萬x3.5％=3.64萬，本金加上利息為107.64萬。

在物價高漲的年代，一般債券多會被通膨吃掉獲利，因而使得價格下跌，此種商品將不確定之風險排除，則較不會有此狀況；但若在低通膨環境時，通膨掛鉤債券投 資成本就會因為較一般債券高。但若以避險考量，此種商品具有無論未來通膨或通縮如何變化，投資人均可於投資期滿後至少拿回本金，達到資產保值，因此TIPS是一種不錯的避險選擇。

總和抗通膨債券之優勢與風險

優點：

1. 對抗通膨風險：此類投資盯住物價指數，故可抵抗物價的波動。

2. 分散投資組合風險：不與股市漲跌同步，提供了一種內在避險的能力。

3. 幾乎無倒債風險：抗通膨債券是美國政府的債務，因此信用風險近乎沒有。

風險

1.若利率上漲而通膨水平不變甚至下跌時，此類債券會貶值令其表現不及一般國債。

2流動性低：由於數量有限，抗通膨債券市場規模小。

I-Bond(通貨膨脹指數債劵)
I-Bond的發行期間為30年，債劵面額共分為八種，由50美元起跳，一直到1萬美元。依據該項債劵發行相關規定，每人每年最高可投資3萬美元，夫妻合計可投資6萬美元，適合一般民眾長期儲蓄之用。
I-Bond和一般儲蓄債劵最大的不同，是綜合固定利率與浮動利率計息，其中固定利率是債劵本身的利率，30年內不會改變;浮動利率則是在每年5月和11月，依消費者物價指數增幅訂立，兩者相加，即是債劵一年的收益。也就是說，債劵收益會隨物價同步上揚，投資人完全不必擔心通貨膨脹會使利息縮水。
I-Bond是按月計息，但不配發給投資人，而是每六個月將利息滾入本金，因此投資人在債劵持有期間，都不必就債劵利息收入繳稅。
依規定，民眾持有儲蓄債劵六個月後，就可隨時向銀行或發行地政府要求兌現。以I-Bond為例，投資人如果在五年內兌現，將損失三個月的利息，五年後則可隨時兌現。

NEWS YOU NEED TO KNOW
THE WHOLE WORLD IS WATCHING WASHINGTON

• Lehman Brothers turned to Japan's Nomura, which on Sept. 22 bought the firm's Asian operations for a paltry $225 million, then its European businesses for an undisclosed price the next day.

*paltry 沒什麼價值的

BTW
YOUR NAME [HERE]?

• AIG says its sponsorship status is “unchanged” following its rescue by the Fed. But on the Web, fans are waggishly offering scenarios. At RedCafe.net, a popular ManU supporter site, users are posting fake team shirts sporting the U.S. flag or the face of President George W. Bush.

*waggishly 詼諧地,幽默地

WHAT PRICE POLLINATION?!
*pollination 授粉
*pollen 花粉
*pollinators 傳粉媒介,傳粉昆蟲

ASK YOUR MOTHER. NO, REALLY—ASK YOUR MOTHER

• The study, based on recently released IRS data for 2005, shows that women bestowed a total of $21.7 billion, nearly 30% more than men did.

*benefactor 施主
*ulterior 隱祕不明的,別有用心的

THE PAUSE THAT UPGRADES

• Interruptions “clear the mind,” changing the way buyers make decisions, says UCLA assistant marketing professor Wendy Liu, who studied how 656 participants made purchase choices for items ranging from rental cars to bed linens

This week's podcast download link




This week's video

Businessweek 20081020(野雞)

ref : the result of credit crutch (provided by Edison)
Washington Mutual acquired by JP Morgan
Merrill Lynch acquired by Bank of America
Wachovia bank acquired by Wells Fargo
Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley turn into Commerce Bank.

WALL STREET STAGGERS (page 28)
Stagger 搖晃,蹣跚
Deregulation 撤銷管制規定
Arcane 晦澀難解的
Derivative 衍生性金融商品
Calamity 災難;大禍;大災害
dig out 發現;找出
hubris 傲慢;驕傲
You never know who's swimming naked until the tide goes out.

THE FED’S MONEY MACHINE
ammo 彈藥;軍火
ammunition 彈藥,軍火
Never underestimate the power of a central bank, which can conjure up money from thin air.
Ref: The tool of Fed
Rate cutting
Create money
Purchasing Treasury securities from banks.
Buying up other assets(riskier kinds of bonds, stocks)

Ref: The risk of FedInflation
Losing its cherished independence
Keep asset prices artificially
Prop up weak financial institution.
Excessive borrowing

STOP NAKED SHORTS!! (page 007)
Naked shorting 無劵放空
Investor sell shares they don’t own without even arranging to borrow them first.

POISONED MILK IN CHINAM
elamine三聚氰胺
Ref: Chinese Again Victimzed by Poisoned Products.

BTWNOW:BEAUJOLAIS PLASTIQUES
nob 自負傲慢的人
Beaujolais 博若萊紅葡萄酒(產於法國東部Beaujolais地區)

SILVER SCREEN, PLATUINUM SEATINGP
lethora 過多
Multiplexes 多放映場影劇院
Cachet 特徵;紀念郵戳
With a plethora of new movie theaters to compete with, some of Tokyo’s multiplexes are trying to raise their profile by increasing their cachet.Smash manga 熱門連載漫畫